워런버핏 - 한국주식시장 투자방법

안녕하세요. 쉽게 지저귀는 짹짹이입니다.

오늘은 가치투자의 대가 워런 버핏이 한국시장에 투자한 방법에 대하여 이야기해볼까 합니다.

버핏은 50년대 그레이엄이 가르쳐준 계량 투자 NCAV 전략으로 엄청난 돈을 벌었습니다. 하지만 자산 규모가 급증하면서 NCAV전략으로는 많은 돈을 소화하기 어려워졌죠.

그러면서 워런 버핏은 비계량 요소를 사용하면서 최고의 투자가라는 명성을 얻었습니다.

그런 버핏은 2004년 한국시장 주식 매뉴얼을 받아보고 저평가된 주식이 많았음에 흥분하였고, 1974년 주식 미국 시장처럼 저평가된 주식을 많이 발견할 수 있음에 가슴이 뛰었습니다.

버핏은 4시간 만에 초저평가된 기업을 찾았습니다. PER와 PBR을 고려하여서 말이죠.

이러한 주식 중 일부 경영진이 사기꾼일 가능성을 대비하여서 20개 그룹에 분산 투자하였고, 약 5배를 벌고 나간 것으로 추정됩니다.

버핏은 이러한 주식 20개를 사면 1~2개는 수익이 별로일 가능성이 있으나 나머지 주식들이 이를 만회할 것이다라고 하며 이 기회는 아무도 알려주지 않기에 늘 눈을 크게 뜨고 찾아야 한다고 합니다.

밑에는 영어 질문과 버핏의 답변 원문입니다. 비계량 투자의 거장 워런 버핏이 한국에 계량 투자를 적용하였다는 것 2004년 한국시장이 그만큼 비효율적이었다는 것이었겠죠.

버핏은 이런 기회는 30년 후에도 계속 찾을 수 있을 것이라고 말하는데요. 저희도 찾아보는 것은 어떨까요.

워런 버핏에 관심이 있으신 분들은 아래 원문을 읽어보시는 것을 추천드릴게요.

 

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Do you believe that we'll have significant mispricings again? And if you were 26 today how would you generate the 50% returns that you said you might do with smaller amounts of capital?

Attractive opportunities come from observing human behavior. In 1998, people behaved like frightened cavemen (referring to the Long Term Capital Management meltdown). People make their own opportunities. They will be frozen by fear, excited by greed and it doesn’t matter what their IQ, degrees etc is. Growth of 50% per year is with small capitalization, not large cap. The point is I got rich looking for stock with strong earnings.

The last 50 years weren’t unique. It’s just capitalizing on human behavior. It’s people that make opportunities when others are frozen by fear or excited by greed. Human behavior allows for success if you are able to detach yourself emotionally.

In 1951, I got out of school at 20 years old. At the time there were two publishers of stock information, Moody’s and Standards and Poor’s. I used Moody’s and went through every manual. I recently bought a copy of the 1951 Moody off of Amazon. On page 1433, there’s a stock you could have made some money on. The EPS was $29 and the Price Range was from $3-$21/share. On another page, there is a company that had an EPS of $29.5 and the price range was $27-28, 1x earnings. You can get rich finding things like this, things that aren’t written about.

A couple of years ago I got this investment guide on Korean stocks. I began looking through it. It felt like 1974 all over again. Look here at this company... Dae Han, I don't know how you pronounce it, it’s a flour company. It earned 12,879 won previously. It currently had a book value of 200,000 won and was earning 18,000 won. It had traded as high as 43,000 and as low as 35,000 won. At the time, the current price was 40,000 or 2 times earnings. In 4 hours I had found 20 companies like this.

The point is nobody is going to tell you about these companies. There are no broker reports on Dae Han Flour Company. When you invest like this, you will make money. Sure 1 or 2 companies may turn out to be poor choices, but the others will more than make up for any losses. Not all of them will be good, but some will and those will make you rich. And this didn’t happen in 1932, this was in 2004! These opportunities will be there in the next 30 years. You’ll have streaks where you’ll find some bad companies and a few times where you’ll make money with everything that you do.

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